Market thermometer
Risk Score
A daily 0-100 score for how much risk we see in the US market. Based on 7 quantitative signals (volatility, credit spreads, breadth, etc.) plus a narrative read of financial X/Twitter.
Quantitative and narrative signals align on rising late-cycle risks: yield curves remain deeply inverted at -60 to -80bps with real yields above 2%, credit spreads have widened 40-60bps from recent tights, and breadth shows dangerous concentration with only 47% of S&P 500 above 200-day MA. FinTwit corroborates with smart-money accounts like @macrocephalopod buying VIX calls for the first time since March 2023 and multiple hedge fund accounts discussing raised cash allocations to 25% amid defensive rotation into bonds and gold. Both quant internals and narrative positioning point to pre-recession hedging behavior rather than imminent crash, but trajectory is clearly deteriorating.
Updated June 1, 2026
What does this score mean?
0-30 (Low risk): The broader market is healthy. Risk-on environment.
30-50 (Normal): Standard volatility. No extreme signals.
50-70 (Elevated): Stress in parts of the market. Be careful with new positions.
70-100 (High risk): Multiple crash signals are flashing. Think defensively.
This score is not a forecast. A high score means historically there has been more risk in the market — not that a crash will happen tomorrow. Use it as one of several inputs to your own decisions.